International study of temperature,heat and urban mortality: the ‘ISOTHURM’ project

摘要: BACKGROUND: This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations low- middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, non-OECD respond to temperature extremes. METHODS: The cities were: Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, Sao Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town, Ljubljana, Bucharest Sofia. For each city, daily was examined relation ambient using autoregressive Poisson models (2- 5-year series) adjusted for season, relative humidity, air pollution, day week public holidays. RESULTS: Most showed a U-shaped temperature-mortality relationship, with clear evidence increasing death rates at colder temperatures all except Salvador Delhi heat Mai Town. Estimates the threshold below which began increase ranged from 15 degrees C 29 C; heat-related deaths 16 31 C. Heat thresholds were generally higher warmer climates, while cold unrelated climate. CONCLUSIONS: Urban geographic settings, experience increases due both high low temperatures. effects vary depending on climate non-climate factors such as population disease profile age structure. Although will undergo some adaptation temperatures, many are likely have substantial vulnerability change. Additional research is needed elucidate within populations.