Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of volcanic columns models: results from the integral model PLUME-MoM

作者: M. de' Michieli Vitturi , S.L. Engwell , A. Neri , S. Barsotti

DOI: 10.1016/J.JVOLGEORES.2016.03.014

关键词: Explosive eruptionComputer simulationPlumeVolcanoGeologyBuoyancyTephraMeteorologyUncertainty quantificationGeophysicsPyroclastic rock

摘要: The behavior of plumes associated with explosive volcanic eruptions is complex and dependent on eruptive source parameters (e.g. exit velocity, gas fraction, temperature grain-size distribution). It also well known that the atmospheric environment interacts produced by in a number ways. wind field can bend plume but affect air entrainment into column, enhancing its buoyancy some cases, preventing column collapse. In recent years, several numerical simulation tools observational systems have investigated action eruption height trajectory, revealing an important influence these variables behavior. this study, we assess dependencies using integral model PLUME-MoM, whereby continuous polydispersity pyroclastic particles described quadrature-based moment method, innovative approach volcanology well-suited for description multiphase nature magmatic mixtures. Application formalized uncertainty quantification sensitivity analysis techniques enables statistical exploration model, providing information extent to which input or propagates output uncertainty. particular, framework IAVCEI Commission tephra hazard modeling inter-comparison PLUME-MoM used investigate exerting major control height, applying it weak scenario based 26 January 2011 Shinmoe-dake conditions strong climatic phase 15 June 1991 Pinatubo eruption.

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