A hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal random parameters approach for alcohol/drug impaired-driving crash frequency analysis
作者： Zhenning Li , Xiaofeng Chen , Yusheng Ci , Cong Chen , Guohui Zhang
DOI: 10.1016/J.AMAR.2019.01.002
关键词: Major injury 、 Crash 、 Computer science 、 Random parameters 、 Unobservable 、 Bayesian probability 、 Impaired driving 、 Statistics 、 Crash frequency 、 Spatial heterogeneity
摘要: Abstract Unobserved heterogeneity, which has been recognized as a critical issue in crash frequency modelling, generates from multiple sources, including observable and unobservable factors, space time instability, severities, etc. However, only very limited body of research is dedicated to distinguish simultaneously address all these sources unobserved heterogeneity. In this study, hierarchical Bayesian random parameters models with various spatiotemporal interactions are developed issue. Selected for analysis the yearly county-level alcohol/drug impaired-driving related counts data three different injury severities minor injury, major fatal Idaho 2010 2015. The variables, daily vehicle miles traveled (DVMT), proportion male (MALE), unemployment rate (UR), percentage drivers 25 years older bachelor's degree or higher (BD), found have significant impacts on be normally distributed certain severities. Significant temporal spatial heterogenous effects also detected These empirical results support incorporation heterogeneity models.
sci-hub.se 参考文章(73)
Panagiotis Ch. Anastasopoulos, Fred L. Mannering, A note on modeling vehicle accident frequencies with random-parameters count models. Accident Analysis & Prevention. ,vol. 41, pp. 153- 159 ,(2009) , 10.1016/J.AAP.2008.10.005
Carola A. Blazquez, Marcela S. Celis, A spatial and temporal analysis of child pedestrian crashes in Santiago, Chile. Accident Analysis & Prevention. ,vol. 50, pp. 304- 311 ,(2013) , 10.1016/J.AAP.2012.05.001
Qiang Zeng, Helai Huang, Bayesian spatial joint modeling of traffic crashes on an urban road network Accident Analysis & Prevention. ,vol. 67, pp. 105- 112 ,(2014) , 10.1016/J.AAP.2014.02.018
Jaeyoung Lee, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, Keechoo Choi, Helai Huang, Multi-level hot zone identification for pedestrian safety Accident Analysis & Prevention. ,vol. 76, pp. 64- 73 ,(2015) , 10.1016/J.AAP.2015.01.006
Eustasius Musenge, Tobias Freeman Chirwa, Kathleen Kahn, Penelope Vounatsou, None, Bayesian analysis of zero inflated spatiotemporal HIV/TB child mortality data through the INLA and SPDE approaches: Applied to data observed between 1992 and 2010 in rural North East South Africa. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. ,vol. 22, pp. 86- 98 ,(2013) , 10.1016/J.JAG.2012.04.001
Kun Xie, Xuesong Wang, Kaan Ozbay, Hong Yang, Crash frequency modeling for signalized intersections in a high-density urban road network Analytic Methods in Accident Research. ,vol. 2, pp. 39- 51 ,(2014) , 10.1016/J.AMAR.2014.06.001
Thomas S. Dee, Alcohol abuse and economic conditions: evidence from repeated cross-sections of individual-level data. Health Economics. ,vol. 10, pp. 257- 270 ,(2001) , 10.1002/HEC.588
Xuesong Wang, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, Temporal and spatial analyses of rear-end crashes at signalized intersections. Accident Analysis & Prevention. ,vol. 38, pp. 1137- 1150 ,(2006) , 10.1016/J.AAP.2006.04.022
Andrew E. Clark, Andrew J. Oswald, Unhappiness and Unemployment The Economic Journal. ,vol. 104, pp. 648- 659 ,(1994) , 10.2307/2234639
CHARLES KOOPERBERG, JULIAN BESAG, On conditional and intrinsic autoregressions Biometrika. ,vol. 82, pp. 733- 746 ,(1995) , 10.1093/BIOMET/82.4.733