Towards a high resolution cellular model for coastal simulation (CEMCOS)

作者: Andrew Plater , John Dearing , Judith Wolf , David Prandle , Nicola Richmond

DOI:

关键词: EstuarySediment transportGeographyDrainage basinComplex systemMarine engineeringConsolidation (soil)HydrologyClimate changeWater flowCellular automaton

摘要: The proposed research was designed to enhance the UK capability simulate complex behaviour of coastline environments in face climate change and human activities. Prediction response systems actions is difficult because it now generally acknowledged that information gained through reductionism alone rarely applicable understanding whole system. Overcoming this deficiency can be attempted by allowing bottom-up interactions processes, at microscale, emergence macroscale phenomena. In respect, recent attempts use high-resolution process-based cellular automata (CA) models geomorphological phenomena within terrestrial catchment show great promise (e.g. Coulthard et al., 2000). present pilot project extended these studies using best available geomorphic, coastal oceanographic derive transitional rules for water flow (tides waves), sediment transport, erosion deposition. one-year successfully compiled tidal, wave processes produced an effective modelling environment simulating estuary integration rules. High Resolution Cellular Model Coastal Simulation (CEMCOS) incorporates relationships between depth, velocity, tideand wave-induced shear stress ‘sedimentary outcome’ as a function deposition thresholds determined velocity physical properties bed critical non-cohesive particles, consolidation, roughness ‘bioarmouring’). model sufficiently well developed run from initial condition order capture emergent other nonlinear Blackwater Estuary, Essex, validate outputs with reference Admiralty Charts, Ordnance Survey maps sedimentary records. Once validated, intended CA-type will provide opportunity simulations into future evaluate potential impacts change, sea-level defence options, identify suitable adaptive responses decision-makers. Objectives • To develop partially new high resolution wave-dominated environments; input datasets crucial significance open simulation; apply Estuary its adjacent coastline, test skill comparison historical information; assess practicalities developing fully integrated East Anglian drainage area. Work undertaken A large majority work directly post-doctoral researcher Dr Nicola Richmond conjunction colleagues University Liverpool, Wales Aberystwyth, Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory. tasks were complete list relevant parameters (Appendix 1); generate mathematical three estuarine components: tides, waves dynamics; incorporate them PC-based interactive environment. Development early 1-D length offered simple platform on which couple together expressions cells. Each cell defined cubic component mean elevation, cohesion etc. Existing tides used tidal current each (in Prof D. Prandle),

参考文章(14)
Ilya Prigogine, The end of certainty ,(1997)
P.K. M'Pherson, Modelling technological change IFAC Proceedings Volumes. ,vol. 10, pp. 69- 76 ,(1977) , 10.1016/B978-0-08-022029-1.50018-1
S. Shackley, M. Bleda, D. Bray, Developing discourse coalitions to incorporate stakeholder perceptions and responses within the Tyndall Integrated Assessment. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research ; 2004. Report No. 19.. ,(2004)
M.J. Tucker, Nearshore waveheight during storms Coastal Engineering. ,vol. 24, pp. 111- 136 ,(1994) , 10.1016/0378-3839(94)90029-9
T. J. Coulthard, M. J. Kirkby, M. G. Macklin, Modelling geomorphic response to environmental change in an upland catchment Hydrological Processes. ,vol. 14, pp. 2031- 2045 ,(2000) , 10.1002/1099-1085(20000815/30)14:11/12<2031::AID-HYP53>3.0.CO;2-G
Roger Lewin, Per Bak, Complexity: Life at the Edge of Chaos ,(1992)
R.H.C. Emmerson, S.B. O'Reilly-Wiese, C.L. Macleod, J.N. Lester, A multivariate assessment of metal distribution in inter-tidal sediments of the Blackwater Estuary, UK Marine Pollution Bulletin. ,vol. 34, pp. 960- 968 ,(1997) , 10.1016/S0025-326X(97)00067-2
R. C. Ris, L. H. Holthuijsen, N. Booij, A third‐generation wave model for coastal regions: 2. Verification Journal of Geophysical Research. ,vol. 104, pp. 7667- 7681 ,(1999) , 10.1029/1998JC900123
S Shackley, M. Bleda, D. Bray, Developing Discourse Coalitions to Incorporate Stakeholder Perceptions and Responses Technical Report n 19; 2004.. ,(2004)