Base-rate Respect by Intuition: Approximating Rational Choices in Base-rate Tasks with Multiple Cues

摘要: Although intuitive-automatic processes sometimes lead to systematic biases in judgment and choice, many situations especially this kind of enables people approximate rational choices. In complex base-rate tasks with repeated outcome feedback we observed choices which were line the Bayes' solution 86% cases made within a relatively short time (i.e., 2.2 seconds). The results indicate reliance on extremely well-calibrated intuition. This view is supported by findings that choice proportions are almost perfectly predicted posterior probabilities (r = .93), error rates, response times confidence ratings highly correlated inconsistency provided information. Our support hypothesis parallel constraint satisfaction models may account for underlying intuition make application simple heuristics deliberate strategies very unlikely. Taking an interdisciplinary perspective, implications economic psychological modeling outlined.