Towards disaster resilience: A scenario-based approach to co-producing and integrating hazard and risk knowledge

摘要: Quantitative risk assessment and management processes are critically examined in the context of their applicability to statistically infrequent sometimes unforeseen events that trigger major disasters. While value when applied at regional or larger scales by governments insurance companies, these do not provide a rational basis for reducing impacts disasters local (community) level because any given locality disaster occur too infrequently future occurrence realistic timeframe be accurately predicted statistics. Given national strategies reduction cannot effective without measures, this is significant problem. Instead, we suggest communities, government officials, civil society organisations scientists could usefully form teams co-develop hazard event effects scenarios, around which can then develop long-term plans building resilience. These may also other disasters, likely have additional benefits improving science development, relevance uptake, enhancing communication between public.