The effects of climate change on the distribution of European glass lizard Pseudopus apodus (PALLAS, 1775) in Eurasia
作者： Reza Nasrabadi , Nasrullah Rastegar-Pouyani , Eskandar Rastegar Pouyani , Haji Gholi Kami , Ahmad Gharzi
DOI: 10.1007/S11284-017-1530-8
关键词: Species distribution 、 Habitat 、 Geography 、 Climate change 、 Altitude 、 Habitat destruction 、 Biodiversity 、 Ecology 、 Effects of global warming 、 Range (biology) 、 Physical geography
摘要: The distribution area of Pseudopus apodus includes the Balkan, Crimean peninsulas, and Ciscaucasia region in Europe, Asia Minor Middle East. This has experienced a significant habitat loss fragmentation because human population growth, increased farming, logging climate change. To estimate how change will affect presumed future studied species, we constructed possible current species its potential environmental risk for dispersion. We used an ensemble prediction to forecast location suitable habitats P. present (i.e. 2070) based on 19 variables. results were consistent among models indicated that there are two most important variables pattern species: temperature seasonality precipitation seasonality. All this study showed AUC TSS value. Based upon FDA maps it is proposed here range be extended east, particular higher altitude regions like Afghanistan, but western Jordan shrunk. Comparison reveals shifted elevations by 2070 during period predicted migrate from lowlands elevations. Change latitudinal also probable find new areas under scenarios.
springer.com
sci-hub.se 参考文章(28)
H. Pitcher, J. Alcamo, H.-H. Rogner, A. Grübler, N. Nakicenovic, K. Riahi, Tae Yong Jung, Jørgen Villy Fenhann, W. Pepper, M. Schlesinger, S. Smith, T. Kram, T. Morita, L. Price, A. Sankovski, R. Swart, L. Michaelis, G. Davis, S. Mori, N. Victor, P. Shukla, Z. Dadi, A. Roehrl, S. Gaffin, E. L. La Rovere, B. de Vries, S. van Rooijen, K. Gregory, Special report on emissions scenarios : a special report of Working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press. ,(2000)
Yoan Fourcade, Jan O. Engler, Aurélien G. Besnard, Dennis Rödder, Jean Secondi, Confronting expert-based and modelled distributions for species with uncertain conservation status: A case study from the corncrake (Crex crex) Biological Conservation. ,vol. 167, pp. 161- 171 ,(2013) , 10.1016/J.BIOCON.2013.08.009
Jiří Šmíd, Jiří Moravec, Petr Kodym, Lukáš Kratochvíl, Seyyed Saeed Hosseinian Yousefkhani, Daniel Frynta, None, Annotated checklist and distribution of the lizards of Iran. Zootaxa. ,vol. 3855, pp. 1- 97 ,(2014) , 10.11646/ZOOTAXA.3855.1.1
C. A. Deutsch, J. J. Tewksbury, R. B. Huey, K. S. Sheldon, C. K. Ghalambor, D. C. Haak, P. R. Martin, Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. ,vol. 105, pp. 6668- 6672 ,(2008) , 10.1073/PNAS.0709472105
Monika Böhm, Ben Collen, Jonathan EM Baillie, Philip Bowles, Janice Chanson, Neil Cox, Geoffrey Hammerson, Michael Hoffmann, Suzanne R Livingstone, Mala Ram, Anders GJ Rhodin, Simon N Stuart, Peter Paul van Dijk, Bruce E Young, Leticia E Afuang, Aram Aghasyan, Andrés García, César Aguilar, Rastko Ajtic, Ferdi Akarsu, Laura RV Alencar, Allen Allison, Natalia Ananjeva, Steve Anderson, Claes Andrén, Daniel Ariano-Sánchez, Juan Camilo Arredondo, Mark Auliya, Christopher C Austin, Aziz Avci, Patrick J Baker, André F Barreto-Lima, César L Barrio-Amorós, Dhruvayothi Basu, Michael F Bates, Alexandre Batistella, Aaron Bauer, Daniel Bennett, Wolfgang Böhme, Don Broadley, Rafe Brown, Joseph Burgess, Ashok Captain, Santiago Carreira, Maria del Rosario Castañeda, Fernando Castro, Alessandro Catenazzi, José R Cedeño-Vázquez, David G Chapple, Marc Cheylan, Diego F Cisneros-Heredia, Dan Cogalniceanu, Hal Cogger, Claudia Corti, Gabriel C Costa, Patrick J Couper, Tony Courtney, Jelka Crnobrnja-Isailovic, Pierre-André Crochet, Brian Crother, Felix Cruz, Jennifer C Daltry, RJ Ranjit Daniels, Indraneil Das, Anslem de Silva, Arvin C Diesmos, Lutz Dirksen, Tiffany M Doan, C Kenneth Dodd Jr, J Sean Doody, Michael E Dorcas, Jose Duarte de Barros Filho, Vincent T Egan, Dirk Embert, Robert E Espinoza, Alejandro Fallabrino, Xie Feng, Zhao-Jun Feng, Lee Fitzgerald, Oscar Flores-Villela, Frederico GR França, Darrell Frost, Hector Gadsden, Tony Gamble, SR Ganesh, Miguel A Garcia, Juan E García-Pérez, Joey Gatus, Maren Gaulke, Philippe Geniez, Arthur Georges, Justin Gerlach, Stephen Goldberg, Juan-Carlos T Gonzalez, David J Gower, Tandora Grant, Eli Greenbaum, Cristina Grieco, Peng Guo, Alison M Hamilton, Kelly Hare, S Blair Hedges, Neil Heideman, Craig Hilton-Taylor, Rod Hitchmough, Bradford Hollingsworth, Mark Hutchinson, Ivan Ineich, John Iverson, Fabian M Jaksic, Richard Jenkins, Ulrich Joger, Reizl Jose, Yakup Kaska, Uğur Kaya, J Scott Keogh, Gunther Köhler, Gerald Kuchling, Yusuf Kumlutaş, Axel Kwet, Enrique La Marca, William Lamar, Amanda Lane, Bjorn Lardner, Craig Latta, Gabrielle Latta, Michael Lau, Pablo Lavin, Dwight Lawson, Matthew LeBreton, Edgar Lehr, Duncan Limpus, Nicola Lipczynski, Aaron S Lobo, Marco A López-Luna, Luca Luiselli, Vimoksalehi Lukoschek, Mikael Lundberg, Petros Lymberakis, Robert Macey, William E Magnusson, D Luke Mahler, Anita Malhotra, Jean Mariaux, Bryan Maritz, Otavio AV Marques, Rafael Márquez, Marcio Martins, Gavin Masterson, José A Mateo, None, The conservation status of the world's reptiles Biological Conservation. ,vol. 157, pp. 372- 385 ,(2013) , 10.1016/J.BIOCON.2012.07.015
B. Sinervo, F. Mendez-de-la-Cruz, D. B. Miles, B. Heulin, E. Bastiaans, M. Villagran-Santa Cruz, R. Lara-Resendiz, N. Martinez-Mendez, M. L. Calderon-Espinosa, R. N. Meza-Lazaro, H. Gadsden, L. J. Avila, M. Morando, I. J. De la Riva, P. V. Sepulveda, C. F. D. Rocha, N. Ibarguengoytia, C. A. Puntriano, M. Massot, V. Lepetz, T. A. Oksanen, D. G. Chapple, A. M. Bauer, W. R. Branch, J. Clobert, J. W. Sites, Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches. Science. ,vol. 328, pp. 894- 899 ,(2010) , 10.1126/SCIENCE.1184695
Julián Monge-Nájera, ECOLOGICAL BIOGEOGRAPHY: A REVIEW WITH EMPHASIS ON CONSERVATION AND THE NEUTRAL MODEL BIOGEOGRAFIA ECOLOGICA: REVISION CON ENFASIS EN CONSERVACION Y EL "MODELO NEUTRAL" Gayana. ,vol. 72, pp. 102- 112 ,(2008) , 10.4067/S0717-65382008000100012
Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani, Andreas Buja, Flexible Discriminant Analysis by Optimal Scoring Journal of the American Statistical Association. ,vol. 89, pp. 1255- 1270 ,(1994) , 10.1080/01621459.1994.10476866
Gian-Reto Walther, Silje Berger, Martin T Sykes, An ecological 'footprint' of climate change Proceedings of The Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. ,vol. 272, pp. 1427- 1432 ,(2005) , 10.1098/RSPB.2005.3119