Caries risk assessment in school children using a reduced Cariogram model without saliva tests

摘要: Background: To investigate the caries predictive ability of a reduced Cariogram model without salivary tests in schoolchildren. Methods: The study group consisted 392 school children, 10-11 years age, who volunteered after informed consent. A risk assessment was made at baseline with aid computer-based and expressed as "the chance avoiding caries" children were divided into five groups. increment (ΔDMFS) extracted from dental records bitewing radiographs 2 years. processed by omitting variables "salivary mutans streptococci", "secretion rate" "buffer capacity" one finally all three. Differences between total models area under ROC-curve. Results: prevalence population 40% (mean DMFS 0.87 ± 1.35) mean 2year 0.51 1.06. Both displayed statistically relationship development (p < 0.05); more found among those assessed high compared to low risk. combined sensitivity specificity decreased exclusion significant reduction ROC-curve 0.05). Among variables, omission streptococci enumeration impaired most. Conclusions: accuracy prediction significantly when applied tests.