Expert Judgment Based Nuclear Threat Assessment for Vessels Arriving in the US
作者： Jason R. W. Merrick , Laura A. Albert
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_19
关键词: Set (abstract data type) 、 Estimation theory 、 Port security 、 Actuarial science 、 Probability model 、 Nuclear threat 、 Regression 、 Statistics 、 Pairwise comparison 、 Computer science
摘要: We demonstrate the use of extended pairwise comparisons for estimating relative likelihood that a vessel approaching US waters contains nuclear threat. an expert judgment based method consisting designed set and parameter estimation predictive probability model using log-linear regression. Results are on proof-of-concept questionnaire completed by eight experts in port security. The estimates obtained used to type predictions can be obtained.
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