Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis

摘要: This paper presents the present philosophy and practice used in probability encoding by Decision Analysis Group at Stanford Research Institute. Probability encoding, process of extracting quantifying individual judgment about uncertain quantities, is one major functions required performance decision analysis. The discusses setting process, including use sensitivity analyses to identify crucial state variables for which extensive procedures are appropriate. importance balancing modeling techniques emphasized examples biases unconscious modes reviewed. A variety methods presented their applicability discussed. authors recommend describe a structured interview that utilizes trained interviewer number designed reduce aid quantification judgment.