Estimation of catchment yield and associated uncertainties due to climate change in a mountainous catchment in Australia

摘要: This paper examines the impacts of climate change on future water yield with associated uncertainties in a mountainous catchment Australia using multi-model approach based four global models (GCMs), 200 realisations (50 from each GCM) downscaled rainfalls, 2 hydrological and 6 sets model parameters. The ensemble projections by GCMs showed that mean annual rainfall is likely to reduce decades 2–5% comparison current (1987–2012). results runoff indicated would 35%. However, considerable uncertainty estimates was found as project changes 5th (dry scenario) 95th (wet percentiles −73% +27%, +12%, −77% +21% −80% +24% 2021–2030, 2031–2040, 2061–2070 2071–2080, respectively. Results estimation demonstrated choice dominates overall uncertainty. Realisation (arising repetitive simulations for given time step during downscaling GCM data scale) also be remarkably high. Uncertainty linked quite small realisation parameter lowest among sources considered this study. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.