Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices

摘要: Hydropower represents the world’s largest renewable energy source. As a flexible technology, it enhances reliability and security of electricity system. However, climate change market liberalization may hinder investment due to evolution water runoffs prices. Both alter expected revenue bring uncertainty. It increases risk deters investment. Our research assesses how fluctuation affect annual revenue. But this paper focuses on uncertainty, rather than forecasting. This transdisciplinary topic is investigated by means mixed method, i.e. both quantitative qualitative. The approach uses established models in natural sciences economics. uncertainty accounted for applying various scenarios datasets coming from different models. Based those results, discussed through an analysis discerning three dimensions Uncertainty requires assessment large panel data sets. therefore rarely carried out. originality also lies combination with qualitative analysis. results surprisingly show that greenhouse gas fact represent low source unlike Like forecasting, main uncertainties are actually case study related depend variables. shown nature evolves. Runoff goes variability, inherent randomness, epistemic, limitation science. reverse situation occurs price. implications scientists policy makers discussed.