Sardine regime shifts off Portugal: a time series analysis of catches and wind conditions

摘要: Decadal changes have been observed in the annual catch of sardine (Sardina pilchardus W). Long-term also alongshore winds off Portugal last decades winter months. During spawning season (winter), northerly that favour upwelling led to unfavourable conditions for egg and larval survival. By using time series analysis, we investigated effect wind North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on catches, period from 1946-1991. We lag between recruitment strength its turnout catches. concluded is forced a lower level when frequency intensity exceeds certain limit winter. Our retrospective analyses evidence climatic driven regime-shifts West productivity late 1960s-early 1970s. These results are discussed terms their implications fisheries management plans.