Advancing Global Ecological Modeling Capabilities to Simulate Future Trajectories of Change in Marine Ecosystems

摘要: Considerable effort is being deployed to predict the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on ocean's biophysical environment, biodiversity, natural resources better understand how marine ecosystems provided services humans are likely explore alternative pathways options. We present an updated version EcoOcean (v2), a spatial-temporal ecosystem modeling complex global ocean that spans food-web dynamics from primary producers top predators. Advancements include enhanced ability reproduce by linking species productivity, distributions, trophic interactions worldwide fisheries. The platform used simulate past future scenarios change, where we quantify configurations ecological model, responses climate-change scenarios, additional fishing. Climate-change obtained two Earth-System Models (ESMs, GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL-CMA5-LR) contrasting emission (RCPs 2.6 8.5) for historical (1950–2005) (2006–2100) periods. Standardized indicators biomasses selected groups compare simulations. Results show trajectories sensitive EcoOcean, yield moderate differences when looking at larger groups. Ecological also environmental drivers ESM outputs RCPs, spatial variability more severe changes IPSL RCP 8.5 used. Under non-fishing configuration, organisms decreasing trends, while smaller mixed or increasing results. Fishing intensifies negative effects predicted again stronger under 8.5, which results in biomass declines already losing dampened positive those increasing. Several win become losers combined impacts, only few (small benthopelagic fish cephalopods) projected cumulative impacts. v2 can contribute quantification impact assessments multiple stressors plausible ocean-based solutions prevent, mitigate adapt change.