Personal attitudes in the assessment of the future of science and technology: A factor analysis approach

摘要: Abstract In 1996, the second German Delphi study (“Delphi '98”) was started. The '98 is a two-round expert survey being conducted by Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of Federal Ministry Education, Research, Science, Technology (BMBF). published in February 1998, now getting into its implementation phase. Its inherent focus development science technology 12 thematic fields next 30 years. To arrive at better understanding influence personal attitudes towards general developments natural environment society, respondents were asked first round their opinion several megatrends concerning environment, economic, sociological, political developments. Over 2,300 answers led to very solid database, which gives insights R&D experts. On some topics, there high consensus, whereas others, opposite opinions coexist. These results may serve as database factor analysis leading identification five different types. This paper examines crucial question whether patterns assessing future types can be observed. general, it turned out that differences do not estimation technology. However, exist specific topics distribution experts among differs significantly fields.