Water scarcity and climate change impact and vulnerability in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean river basins

摘要: Actualmente, la escasez de agua constituye un importante problema en muchos lugares del mundo. El crecimiento poblacion, creciente necesidad alimentos, el desarrollo socio-economico y cambio climatico ejercen una cada vez mayor presion sobre los recursos hidricos, a que paises van tener enfrentarse proximos anos. La region Mediterranea es las regiones mundo ademas zonas mas vulnerables al climatico. mayoria estudios preven mayores temperaturas disminucion precipitaciones, debida disponibles aumento demandas riego. En contexto actual politicas se demanda consideracion marco sectoriales. Sin embargo, enfocados solo sector no reflejan multiples dimensiones efectos Numerosos cientificos han demostrado fenomeno naturaleza multi-dimensional cuyos transmiten escalas. Por tanto, necesaria produccion herramientas analisis capaces reflejar todas estas contribuyan elaboracion robustas Esta investigacion pretende aportar vision global problematica impactos, vulnerabilidad adaptacion mediterranea. presenta integrado modelizacion va ampliando progresivamente proceso secuencial multi-escalar etapa incorpora nueva dimension. consta cuatro etapas abordan lo largo capitulos. primer lugar, estudia economica explotaciones regadio Medio Guadiana, Espana. Para ello, utiliza modelo programacion matematica combinacion con econometrico. A continuacion, segunda etapa, hidro-economico incluye cultivo para analizar procesos tienen lugar escala cultivo, explotacion cuenca teniendo cuenta distintas escalas geograficas toma decisiones. herramienta permite escenarios evaluacion posibles medidas adaptacion. tercera fase consiste barreras dificultan aplicacion cual analizan redes socio-institucionales cuenca. Finalmente, cuarta aporta nacional regional mediante estudio distintos futuro plausibles agua. este econometrico datos panel mediterranea aplica casos Espana Jordania. Los resultados ponen relieve importancia considerar gestion hidricos contextos mediterraneos estudiados. muestran impactos Guadiana conjunto pueden comprometer sostenibilidad ecosistemas. hidrografica resalta interacciones entre usuarios concreto comunidades regantes, asi como fortalecer papel instituciones fomentar creacion comun facilitar Asimismo, trabajo evidencian tambien capacidad fundamental lograr sostenible tales Especialmente, pone manifiesto potencial Directiva Marco Agua Union Europea efectiva Jordania, climatico, preciso disenar estrategias ambiciosas reducir riesgo ABSTRACT Water scarcity is becoming major concern in many parts of the world. Population growth, increasing needs for food production, socio-economic development and climate change represent pressures on water resources that countries around world will have to deal coming years. The Mediterranean one most scarce regions considered hotspot. Most projections envisage an increase temperatures decrease precipitation resulting reduction availability as consequence both reduced increased irrigation demands. Current policy processes require integration concerns into sectoral policies. However, sector-oriented studies often fail address all dimensions implications. Climate research last years has evidenced need more integrated methodologies are capable addressing multi-scale nature change. This attempts provide comprehensive view impacts, vulnerability adaptation contexts. It presents modelling framework progressively enlarged sequential process which new dimension addressed at every stage. comprised four stages, each explained different chapter. first stage explores farm-level economic Spanish basin using mathematical programming model combination with econometric model. Then, second stage, use hydro-economic includes crop growth allows analysis crop, farm level taking account geographical decision-making scales. tool used scenarios assessment potential options. third barriers effective implementation based socioinstitutional network analysis. Finally, country perspective provided focusing possible pathways effect policies future scarcity. For this analysis, panel-data applied case Spain Jordan. overall results study demonstrate value considering multiple scales management contexts analysed. Results show impacts may compromise sustainability systems ecosystems. highlights prominent role interactions between users districts strengthen institutional capacity common understanding enhance processes. also illustrate relevance achieving sustainable areas such region. Specifically, EU Framework Directive emerges powerful trigger adaptation. Jordan, outreaching strategies required addition reduce risk