Bubble, Critical Zone and the Crash of Royal Ahold

摘要: Our analysis of financial data, in terms super-exponential growth, suggests that the seed 2002/03 crisis Dutch supermarket giant AHOLD was planted 1996. It became quite visible 1999 when post-bubble destabilization regime well-developed and acted as precursor an inevitable collapse fueled by raising expectations investors to maintain strong herding pressures. We have adapted Weidlich's theory opinion formation describe buy or sell decisions among investors, based on a competition between mechanisms personal opposing herd. Among four typical patterns stock price evolution, we identified "critical zone" model characterized sensitivity trajectory inclination parameters. The critical zone describes maturation systemic instability forewarning crash. Classification recognition spontaneous emergence market evolution complex systems, particular our discovery which acts subsequent crash antibubble, not only presents possibility developing early warning signals but also top management ways dealing with coming crisis.