El Niño Southern Oscillation drives conflict between wild carnivores and livestock farmers in a semiarid area in Chile

摘要: Abstract The warm phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events results in greatly elevated rainfall north-central Chile, with dramatic effects on small mammals and vertebrate carnivore abundances. In ensuing cool phases ENSO, plant cover decreases, followed by mammal densities, turn affecting the resource availability for their predators. Wild carnivores such as foxes are one main predators mammals; when latter decline, could exhibit functional responses, increasing consumption domestic livestock. To our knowledge, influence native prey abundance livestock predation has not been assessed. We hypothesize that periods scarce increases conflicts between farmers outside protected areas, especially during drought years. From 1990 to 2005 we used live trapping determine monthly density a national park (Bosque Fray Jorge National Park, BFJNP) Chile; was also monitored. calculated an index number sheep predated annually farm (encompassing ca. 45,000 ha) located vicinity BFJNP. Path analysis carried out assess factors influencing wild foxes. Factors included precipitation density. Small correlated positively two years moving average rainfall. Sheep increased after low Our findings suggest employ responses response varying availability, shifting from drought, which have important conservation management implications.