Evaluation of the Productivity Decrease Risk Due to a Future Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Japan

作者: Miguel Esteban , Gorka Longarte-Galnares

DOI: 10.1111/J.1539-6924.2010.01483.X

关键词: Economic productivityIntensity (heat transfer)ProductivityClimate changeCycloneTropical cycloneMeteorologyCumulative effectEconomicsAgricultural economicsPoison controlPhysiology (medical)Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

摘要: A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future. This would result an damage along with a decrease economic productivity due precautionary cessation activity affected areas during passage cyclone. The effect this stop phenomenon has not received much attention past, and cumulative it can on Japanese economy over next 75 years never been evaluated. starting point for evaluation risks change patterns suggested by Knutson Tuleya.(1) results obtained show how significant overall country could be expected, which lower GDP between 6% 13% 2085.

参考文章(17)
M. A. Bender, T. R. Knutson, R. E. Tuleya, J. J. Sirutis, G. A. Vecchi, S. T. Garner, I. M. Held, Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science. ,vol. 327, pp. 454- 458 ,(2010) , 10.1126/SCIENCE.1180568
James B. Elsner, James P. Kossin, Thomas H. Jagger, The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones Nature. ,vol. 455, pp. 92- 95 ,(2008) , 10.1038/NATURE07234
Stéphane Hallegatte, The Use of Synthetic Hurricane Tracks in Risk Analysis and Climate Change Damage Assessment Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. ,vol. 46, pp. 1956- 1966 ,(2007) , 10.1175/2007JAMC1532.1
R. A. Howard, J. E. Matheson, D. W. North, The Decision to Seed Hurricanes Science. ,vol. 176, pp. 1191- 1202 ,(1972) , 10.1126/SCIENCE.176.4040.1191
R. A. Pielke, C. Landsea, M. Mayfield, J. Layer, R. Pasch, Hurricanes and Global Warming. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. ,vol. 86, pp. 1571- 1575 ,(2005) , 10.1175/BAMS-86-11-1571
Dimitris Pachakis, Anne S. Kiremidjian, Estimation of Downtime-Related Revenue Losses in Seaports following Scenario Earthquakes: Earthquake Spectra. ,vol. 20, pp. 427- 449 ,(2004) , 10.1193/1.1705655
Christopher W. Landsea, Hurricanes and global warming Nature. ,vol. 438, pp. E11- E12 ,(2005) , 10.1038/NATURE04477
Thomas R. Knutson, Robert E. Tuleya, Weixing Shen, Isaac Ginis, Impact of CO2-Induced Warming on Hurricane Intensities as Simulated in a Hurricane Model with Ocean Coupling Journal of Climate. ,vol. 14, pp. 2458- 2468 ,(2001) , 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2458:IOCIWO>2.0.CO;2
Miguel Esteban, Christian Webersik, Tomoya Shibayama, Methodology for the estimation of the increase in time loss due to future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan Climatic Change. ,vol. 102, pp. 555- 578 ,(2010) , 10.1007/S10584-009-9725-9