Modeling rapidly disseminating infectious disease during mass gatherings
作者： Gerardo Chowell , Hiroshi Nishiura , Cécile Viboud
关键词: Contingency plan 、 Dissemination 、 Preparedness 、 Infectious disease (medical specialty) 、 Communicable disease transmission 、 Risk analysis (engineering) 、 Population 、 Virology 、 Disease transmission 、 Mass gathering 、 Medicine
摘要: We discuss models for rapidly disseminating infectious diseases during mass gatherings (MGs), using influenza as a case study. Recent innovations in modeling and forecasting transmission dynamics at local, regional, global scales have made particularly attractive model scenario MG. the behavioral, medical, population factors MG disease transmission, review existing formulations, highlight key data gaps related to transmission. argue that proposed improvements will help integrate infectious-disease health contingency plans near future, echoing efforts helped shape pandemic preparedness recent years.
biomedcentral.com
springer.com
cyberleninka.org
elsevier.com
hku.hk
doaj.org
researchgate.net 参考文章(122)
I Gutiérrez, A Litzroth, S Hammadi, H Van Oyen, C Gérard, E Robesyn, J Bots, M T Faidherbe, F Wuillaume, Community transmission of influenza A (H1N1)v virus at a rock festival in Belgium, 2-5 July 2009. Eurosurveillance. ,vol. 14, pp. 19294- ,(2009) , 10.2807/ESE.14.31.19294-EN
C. Castillo-Chavez, G. Chowell, Worst-Case Scenarios and Epidemics ,(2003)
Edward A. Nardell, Environmental control of tuberculosis. Medical Clinics of North America. ,vol. 77, pp. 1315- 1334 ,(1993) , 10.1016/S0025-7125(16)30196-1
A.J. Hall, Infectious diseases of humans: R. M. Anderson & R. M. May. Oxford etc.: Oxford University Press, 1991. viii + 757 pp. Price £50. ISBN 0-19-854599-1 Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. ,vol. 86, pp. 461- 461 ,(1992) , 10.1016/0035-9203(92)90276-I
H Nishiura, C Castillo-Chavez, M Safan, G Chowell, Transmission potential of the new influenza A(H1N1) virus and its age-specificity in Japan Eurosurveillance. ,vol. 14, pp. 19227- ,(2009) , 10.2807/ESE.14.22.19227-EN
Szu-Chieh Chen, Chung-Min Liao, Sih-Syuan Li, Shu-Han You, A probabilistic transmission model to assess infection risk from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in commercial passenger trains. Risk Analysis. ,vol. 31, pp. 930- 939 ,(2011) , 10.1111/J.1539-6924.2010.01552.X
Ray Watson, Paul Yip, How many were there when it mattered? Estimating the sizes of crowds Significance. ,vol. 8, pp. 104- 107 ,(2011) , 10.1111/J.1740-9713.2011.00502.X
Charles N. Haas, Charles P. Gerba, Joan B. Rose, Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment ,(1999)
J Mereckiene, S Cotter, JT Weber, A Nicoll, F D'ancona, PIETRO LUIGI Lopalco, K Johansen, AM Wasley, P Jorgensen, D Lévy-Bruhl, C Giambi, P Stefanoff, L Dematte, D O’flanagan, None, Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination policies and coverage in Europe Eurosurveillance. ,vol. 17, pp. 20064- ,(2012) , 10.2807/ESE.17.04.20064-EN
Dennis L. Chao, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Valerie J. Obenchain, Ira M. Longini, FluTE, a Publicly Available Stochastic Influenza Epidemic Simulation Model PLoS Computational Biology. ,vol. 6, pp. e1000656- ,(2010) , 10.1371/JOURNAL.PCBI.1000656