The Global Distribution of Income in 2050

摘要: Summary Several recent papers have explored the history of global income distribution and point to some improvements: a falling Gini coefficient, poverty rate, headcounts. This paper uses simple accounting procedure (SAP) discussed by Bhalla [Bhalla, S. (2002). Imagine there’s no country: Poverty, inequality growth in era globalization. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics] Futures Model [Hughes, B. B., & Hillebrand, E. (2006). Exploring shaping international futures. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers] project 2015 2050. The results suggest that unless OECD countries start growing more slowly than is now commonly assumed or broad swaths developing world substantially improve their economic performance beyond experienced last 25 years, will soon worsen again.