The retailed gasoline price in China: Time-series analysis and future trend projection
作者： Shiqi Ou , Zhenhong Lin , Guoquan Xu , Xu Hao , Hongwei Li
DOI: 10.1016/J.ENERGY.2019.116544
关键词: Economics 、 Energy information 、 National average 、 China 、 Econometrics 、 Gasoline 、 Liberian dollar 、 Threshold effect 、 Time series 、 Future trend
摘要: Abstract This study introduces a method to systematically project retailed gasoline prices in China and provides projection results. Based on oil taxation pricing mechanisms China, this establishes the statistical relationship between international crude using error correction models (ECM), time-series models. Detailed comparison among asymmetric ECM, threshold ECM are provided. By adopting ECMs, projects from 2019 2050 based Annual Energy Outlook provided by U.S. Information Administration. The results show that responsiveness effect exist under current Chinese policy with lag of one month or even shorter price adjustment. Moreover, analysis informs that, short-run, more sensitive increases; while long-run, decreases. Compared national average 6.04 CNY/Liter 2017, is projected be about 7.64 (2017 dollar) 2050.
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