The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil
作者： Carlos de Castro , Luis Javier Miguel , Margarita Mediavilla
DOI: 10.1016/J.ENPOL.2009.01.022
关键词: Oil shale 、 Fossil fuel 、 Environmental engineering 、 Petroleum 、 Production (economics) 、 Peak oil 、 Econometrics 、 Non-renewable resource 、 Energy source 、 Engineering 、 Renewable energy
摘要: Abstract In this paper, the possible substitution of conventional with non oil is studied using system dynamics models. The model proposed in paper based on geological, economic and technological aspects, it fits approximately behaviour observed by Hubbert. A first validation has been made USA production data. These data show that there a good coincidence between our reality. This expanded order to include one for World. Two models different ways treat contribution have developed tested: base (business as usual), which extrapolates last two decades’ growth type into future, explores how much would be needed avoid peak decrease global renewable fuel production. results that, even under some hypotheses we consider optimistic, attenuation decline requires more than 10% sustained over at least next decades.
iaea.org
elsevier.com参考文章(26)
M. King Hubbert, Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels ,(1956)
Jørgen Randers, William W. Behrens, Dennis L. Meadows, Donella H. Meadows, The Limits to Growth ,(1972)
Robert Louis Hirsch, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management ,(2006)
Emilio L. La Rovere, Hugh Pitcher, Joseph Alcamo, Hans-Holger Rogner, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Keywan Riahi, Sascha van Rooijen, Bert de Vries, William Pepper, Michael Schlesinger, Steven Smith, Tom Kram, Tsuneyuki Morita, Lynn Price, Alexei Sankovski, Gerald Davis, Robert Swart, Priyadarshi Shukla, Laurie Michaelis, Shunsuke Mori, Nadejda Victor, Joergen Fenhann, Amulf Griibler, Kermeth Gregory, Tae Y. Jung, Alexander Roehrl, Zhou Dadi, Stuart Gaffin, Special report on emissions scenarios (2000). pp. 612- ,(2000)
David G. Ockwell, Energy and economic growth: Grounding our understanding in physical reality Energy Policy. ,vol. 36, pp. 4600- 4604 ,(2008) , 10.1016/J.ENPOL.2008.09.005
David L. Greene, Janet L. Hopson, Jia Li, Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist's perspective Energy Policy. ,vol. 34, pp. 515- 531 ,(2006) , 10.1016/J.ENPOL.2005.11.025
Mark Barrett, Robert Lowe, Tadj Oreszczyn, Philip Steadman, How to support growth with less energy Energy Policy. ,vol. 36, pp. 4592- 4599 ,(2008) , 10.1016/J.ENPOL.2008.09.065
M.W. Thring, World Energy Outlook Electronics and Power. ,vol. 23, pp. 329- ,(1977) , 10.1049/EP.1977.0180
Adam R. Brandt, Alexander E. Farrell, Scraping the bottom of the barrel: greenhouse gas emission consequences of a transition to low-quality and synthetic petroleum resources Climatic Change. ,vol. 84, pp. 241- 263 ,(2007) , 10.1007/S10584-007-9275-Y
Song Zan Chiou-Wei, Ching-Fu Chen, Zhen Zhu, Economic growth and energy consumption revisited — Evidence from linear and nonlinear Granger causality Energy Economics. ,vol. 30, pp. 3063- 3076 ,(2008) , 10.1016/J.ENECO.2008.02.002