作者: Richard J. Matear , Andrew Lenton
关键词: Surface water 、 Environmental science 、 Coral 、 Coral reef 、 Earth system model 、 Ocean acidification 、 Arctic 、 Aragonite 、 Representative Concentration Pathways 、 Atmospheric sciences
摘要: Abstract. Carbon–climate feedbacks have the potential to significantly impact future climate by altering atmospheric CO 2 concentrations ( Zaehle et al. , 2010 ) . By modifying concentrations, the carbon–climate will also influence ocean acidification trajectory. Here, we use emissions scenarios from four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with an Earth system model to project trajectories of acidification inclusion of carbon–climate feedbacks. We show that simulated carbon–climate can significantly impact the onset undersaturated aragonite conditions in Southern and Arctic oceans, suitable habitat for tropical coral deepwater saturation states. Under high-emissions (RCP8.5 RCP6), advance onset surface water under saturation and decline reef a decade or more. The impacts are most significant medium- (RCP4.5) low-emissions (RCP2.6) scenarios. For RCP4.5 scenario, by 2100 nearly double area water undersaturated respect reduce 50 % surface water reefs. RCP2.6 2100 reefs 40 % and increase 20 %. The sensitivity low to medium emission is important because recent emission reduction commitments trying transition such scenario. Our study highlights need better characterise carbon–climate feedbacks ensure do not underestimate projected ocean acidification.