Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub‐arctic marine bird

摘要: Negative effects of long‐transported pollutants, such as many persistent organic pollutants (POPs), on seabirds and other top predators have been documented for decades. Yet, the concentrations, hence, negative impacts POPs recently declined in Northern Hemisphere. However, organisms are exposed to multiple stressors pollution act concert with both natural anthropogenic stressors. In theory, this means that even sub‐lethal POP concentrations may cause adverse if they co‐occur increased levels We tested stress hypothesis common eiders, a marine duck northern geographical distribution, by assessing relative importance pollution, climate (winter sea surface temperature; SSTw), egg predation population dynamics viability (i.e., extinction risk) using Leslie‐matrix models. The model was parametrized estimating reproduction apparent adult survival long‐term data from eider sub‐arctic Europe. Average annual 0.80 (coefficient variation [CV] = 22.00%) showed negative, direct delayed, relationship SSTw. clutch size 4.41 eggs (CV = 5.12%) varied time showing periods positive trends, but no based immature estimates literature: 0.52 0.68 juveniles yearlings, respectively. Our supported changes single stressor did not induce extinctions, unless magnitude our manipulations extreme except predation. effect was, however, increasingly when it co‐occurred warming predation—and lowest all occurred simultaneously.