Runoff prediction errors and bias in parameter estimation induced by spatial variability of precipitation

摘要: Spatial variability of precipitation causes inflated mean squared errors prediction in precipitation-runoff modeling. One component these larger is a bias, which often takes the form over-prediction for large events and underprediction small events. This problem examined using an assumed stochastic structure spatial behavior rainfall together with Green-Ampt infiltration equation storm runoff volume. The model incorporates nonstationarity correlation exhibited by actual rainfall. bias parameter estimates obtained least squares calibration to be asymptotically biased. magnitude direction depends on interaction between sensitivity predicted changes values. Numerous climatic hydrologic factors exercise influence this interaction.