Predicted spatial spread of canine rabies in Australia

摘要: Modelling disease dynamics is most useful when data are limited. We present a spatial transmission model for the spread of canine rabies in currently rabies-free wild dog population Australia. The introduction sub-clinically infected from Indonesia distinct possibility, as spillover infection dogs. Ranges parameters were estimated literature and expert opinion, or set to span an order magnitude. Rabies was judged have spatially if new infectious case appeared 120 km index case. found 21% initial value settings resulted spreading 120km, on doing so at median speed 67 km/year. Parameters governing movements behaviour, around which there paucity knowledge, explained variance outcomes. Dog density, especially interactions with other included, some whether but demography (mean lifespan mean replacement period) had minimal impact. These results provide clear research direction Australia improve its preparedness rabies.