A new method for probabilistic assessment of regional climate impacts in dependence of cumulative GHG emission budgets

摘要: Given the expected and already observed impacts of climate change there is growing agreement that global mean temperature rise should be limited to below 2 or 1.5 degrees. The translation such a target into guidelines for emission reduction over coming decades has become one most important urgent tasks. In fact, are four recent studies (Meinshausen et al. 2009, Allen Matthews 2009 Zickfeld 2009) which take very comprehensive approach quantifying current uncertainties related question what “allowed amounts” emissions given specific limits warming. Here, we present an extension this budget allowing focus on regional impacts. method based probabilistic projections precipitation changes providing input available impact functions. Using example Greenland’s surface mass balance (Gregory al., 2006) will demonstrate how probability can described in dependence GHG budgets taking account uncertainty as well patterns varying from AOGCM AOGCM.