Handling “Don't Know” Survey Responses: The Case of the Slovenian Plebiscite

摘要: Abstract The critical step in the drive toward an independent Slovenia was plebiscite held December 1990, at which citizens of voted overwhelmingly favor a sovereign and state. Slovenian Public Opinion (SPO) survey November/December 1990 used by government to prepare for plebiscite. Because counted as “YES voters” only those voters who attended independence (nonvoters “NO voters”), “Don't Know” responses can be thought missing data—the true intention voter is unknown but must either “YES” or “NO.” An analysis data under missing-at-random assumption provides remarkably accurate estimates eventual outcome, substantially better than ad hoc methods nonignorable model that allows nonresponse depend on intended vote.