Regional hydrological cycle changes in response to an ambitious mitigation scenario

摘要: Climate change impacts on the regional hydrological cycle are compared for model projections following an ambitious emissions-reduction scenario (E1) and a medium-high emissions with no mitigation policy (A1B). The E1 is designed to limit global annual mean warming 2 °C or less above pre-industrial levels. A multi-model ensemble consisting of ten coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models analyzed, which includes five Earth System Models containing interactive carbon cycles. aim study assess changes that could be mitigated under identify regions where even small climate may lead strong in precipitation, cloud cover evapotranspiration. In these considered particularly vulnerable change, highlighting need adaptation measures if would achieved. A1B projections, there significant drying trends sub-tropical regions, precipitation increases high latitudes some monsoon as well cloudiness These signals reduced projections. However, scenario, decrease subtropics increase projected. Particularly Amazon region shows tendencies models, most probably related vegetation interaction. Where relatively small, tends keep average magnitude potential at level comparable current intra-seasonal inter-annual variability location. Such mainly located mid-latitudes.