The Origin of Inconsistencies in Probabilistic Reasoning of Novices

摘要: This paper describes a study in which subjects were asked about various aspects of coin flipping. Many gave contradictory answers to closely-related questions. We offer two explanations for such responses: (a) switching among incompatible perspectives uncertainty, including the outcome approach (Konold, 1989), judgement heuristics (Tversky and Kahneman, 1982), normative theory; (b) reasoning via basic beliefs As an example latter, people believe both that is unpredictable also certain outcomes flipping are more likely than others. Logically, these not contradictory; they are, however, incomplete. Thus, statements (and at variance with probability theory) appear when applied beyond their appropriate domain. In study, twenty (twelve women eight men) recruited from undergraduate psychology courses University Massachusetts. Eleven had taken, or currently enrolled in, statistics course. Subjects participated hour-long videotaped interview (conducted by Hendrickson) included several questions concerning probability. The came middle interview. These presented below order asked. 4-Heads Problem: "A fair flipped 4 times, each time landing heads up. What most if fifth time? another tails; tails heads; (c) (heads tails) equally likely?" HIT Sequence 1. "Which following sequences result 5 times? THHTT, (d) lTIBTH; (e) all four likely." 2. least times?" m e options above repeated, option worded "... unlikely."]