Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere.

摘要: Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers ecological in coming century. Increases temperature over last century have clearly been linked shifts species distributions. Given magnitude projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range These changes will, turn, alter communities and functioning ecosystems. Despite seriousness climate change, uncertainty climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers planners proactively respond stresses. To address aspect this uncertainty, identified predictions faunal which a high level consensus was exhibited by different models. Specifically, assessed potential effects 30 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future-climate simulations on geographic ranges 2954 birds, mammals, amphibians Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent based relatively low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario result local loss at least 10% vertebrate fauna much North South America. The largest are tundra, Central America, Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas likely experience 90% turnover, so that distributions will bear little resemblance those today.