作者: Edward N. Lorenz
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450(1970)009<0325:CCAAMP>2.0.CO;2
关键词: Mathematical problem 、 Climate change 、 Weather prediction 、 Ingenuity 、 Variables 、 Atmosphere (unit) 、 Computation 、 Mathematical model 、 Meteorology 、 Operations research 、 Computer science 、 General Engineering 、 General Medicine
摘要: Abstract Formulating reasonable hypotheses regarding climatic change requires physical insight and ingenuity, but subsequently testing these demands quantitative computation. Many features of today's climate have been reproduced by mathematical models (equations arranged for numerical solution digital computers), similar to those used in weather prediction. Models currently use generally predict only the atmosphere, pre-specify state its environment (oceans, land surfaces, sun, etc.). Newer models, where certain environmental conditions enter as additional dependent variables, should be suitable climatic-change hypotheses. Aspects atmosphere which play no role may highly simplified. A super-model virtually all not-strictly-constant variables ultimately lead an acceptable theory change.