The impact of time horizon on integrated climate assessment models

摘要: The PAGE09 model is a revised version of the earlier PAGE2002 and PAGE95 integrated assessment models (IAMs) that have been extensively used to evaluate climate change impacts social costs benefits different abatement adaptation policies under uncertainty. This paper investigates use latest as policy-oriented tool in determining an efficient policy internalises mean cost carbon dioxide (SCCO2). We show choice final analysis year, time horizon (CO2) emissions pathway do significantly affect results for SCCO2 its trajectory over so prescriptions future policy. Further shows constant slight modification penultimate year which currently fixed default help avoid underestimation years. also highlights potential benefit consensus position on specification development IAMs aid making.