Modeling long-distance dispersal of emerald ash borer in European Russia and prognosis of spread of this pest to neighboring countries within next 5 years

摘要: Aim To develop an approach to model the spatial dynamics of emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in European Russia. This tree-killing pest was detected Moscow 15 years ago and began spread, posing a threat ashes all over Europe. The aim determine its probable current range evaluate probability dispersal neighboring countries within next 5 years. Location Cities transport hubs Russia countries. Ash trees this region occur mainly urban plantations along highways. Methods Pairwise distances between locations were used as main parameter determining spread. For each location, detection A. calculated using three simulation recurrent models long-distance dispersal. Parametrization made by comparison with results surveys 2003-2015. Field data on 2016-2017 mapped for verification. A prognosis spread 2022 made. Results based fat-tailed kernel corresponds both negative positive surveys. According model, is likely be restricted Russia, but east Belarus, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania 15%-40%. Main conclusions forestry services probably have about prepare invasion pest, regular are necessary, since can appear at any time. case considered shows that simple just one parameter-pairwise distance cities-can modeling alien pests plantations.