Ecological risk analysis: prospects and problems

摘要: Two methods for quantifying ecological risks in probabilistic terms are discussed. In Analysis of Extrapolation Error, effects thresholds fish species the field estimated, with error bounds, from observed on laboratory test species. Ecosystem Uncertainty Analysis, Monte Carlo simulation and ecosystem models used to extrapolate toxicological data estimated populations trophic levels. At present state development validation risk models, uncertainties associated all predictions enormous. Although accurate absolute magnitudes ecosystems not now possible, analysis can be compare or rank sources stress order relative sensitivity. Probabilistic also importance disparate uncertainty estimates. Limited uses environmental management regulation appear feasible, provided they based either water quality organism-level rather than ultimate populations/ecosystems. More ambitious applications ecology currently limited by insufficient understanding how real respond stress.