Forecasts and assimilation experiments of the Antarctic ozone hole 2008
作者： J. Flemming , A. Inness , L. Jones , H. J. Eskes , V. Huijnen
关键词: Atmospheric sciences 、 Stratosphere 、 Ozone layer 、 Integrated Forecast System 、 Microwave Limb Sounder 、 Ozone 、 Ozone depletion 、 Ozone Monitoring Instrument 、 SCIAMACHY 、 Meteorology
摘要: Abstract. The 2008 Antarctic ozone hole was one of the largest and most long-lived in recent years. Predictions were made near-real time (NRT) hindcast mode with Integrated Forecast System (IFS) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). forecasts carried out both without assimilation satellite observations from multiple instruments to provide more realistic initial conditions. Three different chemistry schemes applied description stratospheric chemistry: (i) a linearization chemistry, (ii) chemical mechanism Model Ozone Related Chemical Tracers, version 3, (MOZART-3) (iii) relaxation climatology as implemented Transport Model, 5, (TM5). IFS uses latter two by means two-way coupled system. Without assimilation, showed model-specific shortcomings predicting start time, extent duration hole. Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Solar Backscattering Ultraviolet radiometer (SBUV-2) SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) led significant improvement when compared total columns vertical profiles sondes. combined helped overcome limitations ultraviolet (UV) sensors at low solar elevation over Antarctica. data MLS crucial obtain good agreement observed polar stratosphere troposphere. analyses three model configurations very similar despite underlying schemes. Using conditions had beneficial but variable effect on predictability 15 days. initialized MOZART-3 produced best predictions increasing whereas linear scheme results during ozonehole closure.
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