The Impact of Matching Vaccine Strains and Post-SARS Public Health Efforts on Reducing Influenza-Associated Mortality among the Elderly

摘要: Public health administrators do not have effective models to predict excess influenza-associated mortality and monitor viral changes associated with it. This study evaluated the effect of matching/mismatching vaccine strains, type/subtype pattern in Taiwan's influenza viruses, impact post-SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) public efforts on mortalities among elderly. A negative binomial model was developed estimate monthly We calculated three winter annual [pneumonia (P&I), circulatory, all-cause] from 1999–2000 through 2006–2007 seasons. Obtaining virus sequences months/years which death P&I excessive, we investigated molecular variation vaccine-mismatched viruses by comparing hemagglutinin 1 (HA1) circulating strains. found that higher isolation rate (H3N2) greater mortality. However, this significant positive association became for matching effect. Mean winters significantly before 2003 than after year [mean ± S.D.: 1.44±1.35 vs. 0.35±1.13, p = 0.04]. Further analysis revealed vaccine-matched were lower during (i.e., 2005–2007) pre-SARS [0.03±0.06 1.57±1.27, p = 0.01]. Stratification these vaccine-matching showed substantial trends toward elderly either mismatching vaccines period or period. Importantly, all at their highest May, 2003, when inter-hospital nosocomial infections peaking. Furthermore, H3N2 years high exhibited both a amino acid identity percentage HA1 between strains numbers variations epitope B. Our can help future decision makers effectively, select test antigenic variation, evaluate strategy effectiveness.