Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Phenology and Grain Yield in Irrigated Drylands of Central Asia

摘要: Rice is the second major food crop in central Asia. Climate change may greatly affect rice production region. This study quantifies effects of projected increases temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration on phenological development grain yield using ‘‘ORYZA2000’’ simulation model. The model was parameterized validated basis datasets from three field experiments with widely cultivated varieties under various seeding dates 2008‐09 growing seasons Khorezm region Uzbekistan. selected represent short-duration (SD), medium-duration (MD), long-duration (LD) maturity types. linked historical climate data (1970‐99) temperatures concentrations by Intergovernmental Panel Change for B1 A1F1 scenarios period 2040‐69 to explore growth formation at eight emergence early May mid-July. Simulation results daily weather reveal a close relationship between date yield. Optimal were 25 June SD, 5 MD, 26 LD varieties. Under both scenarios, could be delayed 10 days. Increased resulted higher yields. However, before after optimal reduced stability significantly because spikelet sterility induced high low temperatures. As SD adversely affected change, breeding programs Asia should focus developing appropriate heat-tolerant MD