Modeling the combined impact of climate change and sea-level rise on general circulation and residence time in a semi-enclosed sea.

摘要: Abstract This study provides an assessment of possible changes in the general circulation and residence time Persian Gulf under potential future sea-level rise wind field due to climate change. To determine climate-change-induced impacts, Mike 3 Flow Model FM was used simulate hydrodynamic transport processes both historical (1998–2014) periods (2081–2100). Historical simulation driven by ERA-Interim data. A statistical approach employed modify values directions obtained from Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 8.5 (RCP4.5 RCP8.5, respectively) scenarios derived CMCC-CM model fifth phase Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The numerical calibrated validated using measured Results indicated that period, ranged between less than a month Strait Hormuz 10 years semi-enclosed area close south Bahrain. based on RCP scenario were found be most disadvantageous for Gulf's capacity flush dissolved pollutants out. Under this scenario, would 17% longer one. is mainly because change large enough overwhelm circulation, showing relationship residual circulation. Impact according modeled negligible. outputs also showed slightly decrease current velocity, resulting negligible increase time. findings are intended support establishing climate-adaptation management plans coastal zones studied line with sustainable development goals.