Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe

摘要: Abstract. The limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS has been running operationally at ECMWF since November 2002. Five runs of the non-hydrostatic model Lokal Modell (LM) are available every day, nested on five selected members three consecutive 12-h lagged global ensembles. forecasts range up to 120h and LM-based probabilistic products disseminated several national weather services. constructed in order have a with high resolution, focussing attention extreme events regions complex orography. In this paper, performance for heavy precipitation event that affected Central Europe August 2002 examined. At 4-day forecast range, probability maps indicate possibility overcoming thresholds (up 150mm/24h) over region actually by flood. Furthermore, one out predicts 4 days ahead structure very similar observed one.