Management Errors and System Reliability: A Probabilistic Approach and Application to Offshore Platforms

摘要: Probabilistic risk analysis, based on the identification of failure modes, points to technical malfunctions and operator errors that can be direct causes system failure. Yet component failures are often rooted in management decisions organizational factors. Extending analysis identify these factors allows more effective strategies. It also permits a realistic assessment overall probability. An implicit assumption is made PRA that, whole, has been designed according specified norms constructed as designed. Such an tends overemphasize scenarios which fails because it subjected much higher load than those for was In this article, we find case jacket-type offshore platforms, class contributes only about 5% We link inputs during three phases design, construction, operation assess contribution different types error probability platform compute benefits improving design review, given costs involved, review process efficient way increase safety reinforcing structure.