Strict and Flexible Inflation Forecast Targets: An Empirical Investigation

摘要: We examine whether standard theoretical models of inflation forecast targeting are consistent with the observed behaviour central banks Australia, Canada, and United States. The target criteria from these restrict conditionally expected paths variables targeted by bank, in particular output gap. estimate various moment conditions, providing a description monetary policy for each bank under different maintained hypotheses. then test estimated conditions satisfy predictions optimal policy. overall objective is to extent which manner successfully balance objectives over near term. For all three countries, we obtain reasonable estimates both strict flexible models, though some qualifications. Most notably, Australia States there predictable deviations forecasted targets, not targeting. In contrast, results Canada lend considerable support simple