A comparison of judgmental policy equations obtained from human judges under natural and contrived conditions

摘要: Abstract During the last decade, numerous investigators have constructed mathematical models of experts' judgmental processes. However, not collected data from judges as they normally or naturally make their decisions. Instead, used artificial situations which contrived judgment so that it differed in many ways natural conditions. Nonetheless, assumed determined judgments were similar to would been found if had used. this assumption has heretofore investigated. Sufficient concerning ratings acute suicide lethality made by telephone workers at Suicide Prevention Center Los Angeles permit construction these workers' The clinical records two obtained, and regression These workers, others, then several situations. type cue used, methods values number made, nature persons rated; consequently, some more like conditions than others. Multiple analyses applied data, policy equations for each worker judgment. All compared, using an index measured agreement between judges' equations. Great similarity was among all equations, both those different workers. Even obtained most be highly Thus, support previous under are similar.