Can UK passenger vehicles be designed to meet 2020 emissions targets? A novel methodology to forecast fuel consumption with uncertainty analysis ☆

摘要: Abstract Vehicle manufacturers are required to reduce their European sales-weighted emissions 95 g CO2/km by 2020, with the aim of reducing on-road fleet fuel consumption. Nevertheless, current consumption models not suited for market and unable account uncertainties when used forecast passenger vehicle energy-use. Therefore, a new methodology is detailed herein quantify car based on design metrics. The New Driving Cycle (NEDC) shown underestimate in Spark (SI) Compression Ignition (CI) vehicles an average 16% 13%, respectively. A Bayesian model attributes these discrepancies differences rolling, frictional aerodynamic resistances. Using projected inputs engine size, mass, compression ratio, likely 2020 was estimated be 7.6 L/100 km SI 6.4 L/100 km CI vehicles. These compared NEDC estimates 5.34 L/100 km 4.28 L/100 km (CI), both which exceeded mandatory equivalent standards 30.2% 18.9%, results highlight need more stringent technological developments ensure adherence targets, requirements accurate measurement techniques that between standardised