Predicting Bank Failures in the 1980s

摘要: Opinions stated in Economic Review are those of the authors and not necessarily Federal Reserve Bank Cleveland or Board Governors System. This paper uses a single-equation logic model to discriminate between samples failed nonfailed banks over 1984-1989 period. Previous failure prediction studies had pool bank failures across years obtain an adequate sample. The historically high number past decade, however, allows each year sample period be examined separately. author incorporates measures economic conditions equation, along with traditional balance-sheet risk measures, finds that majority these variables significantly related as much four before institution actually folds.