Reconciling stock assessment paradigms to better inform fisheries management

摘要: For several decades, the fisheries stock assessment paradigms of virtual population analysis (VPA) and statistical catch-at-age (SCA) models have been routinely applied to major fish stocks, their prevalence often dictated by historical continuity, local experience, geographical differences in standard practices. Similarly, there is a growing split amongmodels using short long time-series. In one approach, only recent timeseries,where thedata are relatively complete, assumptions about stationarity inpopulation samplingprocesses simple, included. other, time-series include far more data, but necessitate relaxation many common regarding stationarity. Unlike scientific fields outside science where empirical validation can provide body irrefutable evidence (such as physics), no expectation that some “truth” will emerge or single best modelling approach ultimately displace others. The 2013 Pacific halibut SCA assessment, with addition VPA-based analysis, used illustrate howan ensemble represent amore complete description uncertainty inmanagement quantities, relative selecting just these competing model paradigms. We suggest risk for management, based on models, should seek avoid binary decisions whichmodels include, instead better approaches incorporate alternativemodels. also provides conceptual link between traditional “bestmodel” analyses fully developedmanagement strategy evaluation harvest policy management procedures.