Context-dependent survival, fecundity and predicted population-level consequences of brucellosis in African buffalo

摘要: Chronic infections may have negative impacts on wildlife populations, yet their effects are difficult to detect in the absence of long-term population monitoring. Brucella abortus, bacteria responsible for bovine brucellosis, causes chronic and abortions wild domestic ungulates, but its impact dynamics is not well understood. We report infection patterns fitness correlates brucellosis African buffalo based (1) 7 years cross-sectional disease surveys (2) a 4-year longitudinal study Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa. then used matrix model translate these observed into predicted population-level effects. Annual seroprevalence ranged from 8·7% (95% CI = 1·8-15·6) 47·6% CI = 35·1-60·1) increased with age until adulthood (>6) varied by location within KNP. Animals were average worse condition after testing positive (F = -5·074, P < 0·0001), was associated 2·0 CI = 1·1-3·7) fold increase mortality (χ(2)  = 2·039, P = 0·036). Buffalo low body lower reproductive success (F = 2·683, P = 0·034), there no association between pregnancy or being calf. For range scores population, model-predicted growth rate λ = 1·11 CI = 1·02-1·21) herds without λ = 1·00 CI = 0·85-1·16) when 30%. Our results suggest that can potentially result reduced rates, because demographic environmental conditions, they remain unseen intensive,