Physically-based catchment-scale prediction of slope failure volume and geometry

摘要: Abstract The application of physically-based approaches for slope failure analysis at a catchment scale remains difficult challenge, and several new models have been proposed in recent years. assumptions these vary significantly. Tools such as random ellipsoid sampling provide detailed assessment probability but due to numerical cost can not be applied beyond site-investigations. In this research, an iterative method finding progressive surfaces is developed. Additionally, includes description lateral forces that occur weight the fractured material. This development extends similar approach was developed part OpenLISEM multi-hazard modelling tool. Study cases are presented set hypothetical slopes storm-induced disaster occurred Messina (Italy), on first October 2009. Here, large number shallow failures transformed into debris flows. model outcomes compared with other free open-source methods currently available within scientific community (Infinite Slope, (r.slope.stability) spheroid (Scoops3D)). Finally, finite element performed using ADONIS). Analysis predicted show able better predict occurrence smaller more robust option larger failures. Predicted surface patterns 2009 event complex variation between rotational translational geometry depending topography. ability catchment-scale deterministic volume potentially used quantify source volumes during future disasters.