The risk of Xylella fastidiosa outbreaks will decrease in the Mediterranean olive-producing regions

摘要: Abstract The bacterium Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is a worldwide distributed invasive insect-borne plant pathogen, which causes lethal diseases to many economically-important crops including olives, citrus, almonds and grapes as well numerous forest, ornamental, uncultivated plants. Mediterranean basin the top supplier of olive oil with 93% world production consequently highly concerned about recent invasion Xf in Europe. Recently, bioeconomic models estimated putative losses induced by spread across European olive-producing area ranging from 1.9 5.2 billion euros over 50 years; however, such did not take into account insect vectors, constitute key driver spread. In present study, we used bioclimatic species distribution predict current future climate suitability for main efficient or transmitters (i.e. Philaenus spumarius, Neophilaenus campestris Aphrophora alni). An important part total extent area, mainly situated southern Spain, Turkey Greece, predicted currently poorly suitable these vector species. Moreover, forecast that nearly totality regions will likely become climatically little vectors 2050 due change. Europe, outbreaks have occurred so far only localities (e.g. Apulia region Italy) while areas are still apparently Xf-free, suggests tolerances might play role shaping patterns. This pattern highlights crucial necessity accounting when assessing risk outbreaks, considering vector-borne general. maps presented here practical application optimization strategies control region.